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TNB’s cash flow to remain neutral despite delay PETALING JAYA: While the delay in the periodic electricity tariff review will likely have a neutral impact on Tenaga Nasional Bhd’s (TNB) cash flow, the extension of the current electricity tariff schedule poses a regulatory risk to TNB.Late last week, the Energy Commission and TNB said the periodic electricity tariff review, comprising both the Regulatory Period 3 (RP3) implementation and half-yearly imbalance cost pass-through (ICPT) review, has been delayed until further notice.The current RP2-extension parameters will be extended further during this period, with base tariff maintained at 39.45sen per kilowatt hour (kwh) while the previous ICPT rebate of 2sen/kwh is also maintained.The decision comes on the heels of the natural disaster faced by the country currently, coupled with a significant increase in global fuel prices, particularly since mid-2021, as well as a still fragile macro recovery.Notably, a potential rise in rates will not augur well for the country.MIDF Research, in a report yesterday, said the decision to delay the tariff review came as a surprise, considering this is the second such delay. It must be noted that RP2, which expired in 2020, had been extended for one year until end-2021.The research house also noted that TNB’s deep ICPT under-recovery position of RM1.3bil as at the third quarter of financial year 2021 is a result of rising coal and gas market prices.“While our checks suggests that TNB’s cash flow will remain neutral to the decision to maintain the ICPT rebate (suggesting TNB will remain compensated for the generation fuel cost under-recovery), the interruption in the tariff-setting process raises regulatory concerns, particularly amid still elevated global fuel prices.“Additionally, this means uncertainties on the determination of RP3 regulated returns will prolong and remains an overhang in the immediate future,” it said.Given that the latest development may cap upside for the stock in the near-term – coupled with lingering environmental, social and governance concerns – MIDF has downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “buy” previously.It also lowered its target price to RM9.55 a share from RM11.80 previously. This is to incorporate the higher risk premium into its discounted cashflow valuation to reflect the emerging regulatory concern.“We think prospects of a valuation re-rating for TNB could be pushed out further.”Nevertheless, upside risk to its call could emerge from more aggressive than expected build-up of renewable energy (RE) assets against TNB’s 8,300 megawatts RE capacity target by 2025.An earlier than expected spin-off of its generation unit, which has been a drag to overall group valuation given its coal generation exposure, could also be a re-rating catalyst.TNB’s closed 5 sen lower at RM9.13 yesterday.


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