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In Malaysia, foreign buying of local equities had also slowed significantly, falling to RM200mil last month from RM1.6bil a month earlier, according to data compiled by Maybank Investment Bank Research.

FOREIGN flows into emerging market (EM) stocks and bonds excluding China have slowed sharply, as concerns grow over the United States Federal Reserve’s (Fed) impending tightening cycle and the emergence of the Omicron coronavirus variant.

According to the International Institute of Finance (IIF), EM investors have turned more selective and risk sensitive given the risks involved.

Moreover, surging inflation is forcing the hand of policy makers across the EM landscape, it says, noting 12 of 20 major EM central banks have tightened monetary policy since May.

Consequently, EM bond flows have started to diminish, the IIF says.

Data from the association of financial services industry show non-resident flows to EM assets excluding China decreased to US$6.3bil (RM26.5bil) last month, compared with US$11.3bil (RM47.6bil) in the preceding month.

Of the amount in November, EMs debt ex-China attracted US$2.1bil (RM8.8bil) in inflows, a significant decline from US$13.9bil (RM58.6bil) in October; while EMs equities ex-China saw inflows of US$4.2bil (RM17.7bil), compared with an outflow of US$2.5bil (RM10.5bil) in October.

“We see non-China EM in a de facto sudden stop, with the large devaluation of Turkish lira likely to worsen the picture going forward, given that contagion to the rest of EMs is possible,” the IIF says in its recent report.

“Underlying this overall picture is a lot of differentiation across individual emerging markets.

“The latest variant of Covid, an acceleration of Fed tapering and large devaluation in Turkey carry additional risks for an already stressed EM flows picture,” it adds.

Besides Turkey, Argentina and Brazil are among the most vulnerable in this regard.

The IIF notes China flows carry a large weight, hence it separates the country’s data from the rest of EM, so as to get a clearer view of any potential trend emerging from the economies.

Last month, China debt flows totalled US$4.2bil (RM17.7bil), compared with US$4.8bil (RM20.2bil) in the preceding month, while China equities saw inflows of US$5bil (RM21.1), compared with US$7.3bil (RM30.8bil).

While there could be volatilities ahead, the IIF notes that EMs has thus far averted a repeat of the 2013 Taper Tantrum, whereby there was a huge outflow of capital from EM stocks and bond after the Fed turned hawkish, sending US yields soaring.

The broad-based outflows from EM assets resulted in the sharp depreciation of EM currencies.

According to the IIF, there are primarily two reasons that have helped avert a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum.

“First, the Fed learnt critical lessons from the taper tantrum and avoided the kind of hawkish shift that drove yields up in 2013.


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