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PETALING JAYA: Plantation companies are expected to gain from the strong price of crude palm oil (CPO) but the outlook among brokers is mixed for planters heading into 2022.

With CPO futures having retreated slightly to around RM4,900 per tonne after hitting a historical high of RM5,017 per tonne last month, the outlook for the CPO price continues to be mixed among analysts.

Among those that are cautious, RHB Research felt CPO prices could be due for a correction even after the slight pullback seen recently.

“CPO prices have retreated a bit, with three-month futures now being below the RM5,000-per-tonne mark.

“However, soybean prices have retreated more, resulting in the CPO-soybean oil (SBO) gap narrowing to US$25 (RM104) per tonne versus US$160 (RM667) per tonne last month, and the usual levels of US$100 to US$150 (RM417 to RM626) per tonne.

“This implies that CPO is now expensive versus SBO, and could be due for a correction,” RHB Research said.

The research house has maintained its “underweight” stance on the plantation sector and expects a moderation in prices next year amid an expected improvement in the supply side.

“Malaysia’s CPO output rose slightly by 1.3% month-on-month (m-o-m) in October, while stocks increased 4.4% to 1.83 million tonnes, bringing stock-to-usage ratios back to historical averages.

“We advise investors to ride the wave and look for opportunities to sell into strength,” it said.

“We are in the midst of reviewing our 2022 price assumptions, but maintain our profit-taking stance, as we continue to believe the environmental, social and governance (ESG) discounts for the sector are here to stay. We like Wilmar International Ltd, London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk, Sarawak Oil Palms Bhd and Ta Ann Holdings Bhd,” RHB Research added.CLICK TO ENLARGE

CGS-CIMB Research, on the other hand, was more optimistic on the CPO prices moving into 2022, as supply issues are expected to remain in the near term.

“We project palm oil stocks to decline by 0.4% m-o-m to 1.83 million tonnes by end-November 2021, with output falling 9% m-o-m and exports down 5% m-o-m.

“We project CPO prices to remain firm at RM4,000 to RM5,000 per tonne in November 2021, amid tight near-term global edible oil and palm oil inventories,” CGS-CIMB said.

The research house has also raised its CPO price forecasts by 15%, 24% and 16% to RM4,270, RM3,600 and RM3,240 per tonne, respectively, for 2021, 2022 and 2023.

CGS-CIMB has also introduced its 2024 CPO price forecast of RM3,240 per tonne.

“This is to reflect lower CPO and global edible oil supplies, as well as slower-than-expected easing of foreign worker shortages in Malaysia.


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