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亚马逊云账号(www.2km.me)_Central bankers spooked by signs inflation lingering longer

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With inflation accelerating, the Federal Reserve is set to slow its asset-purchase program, while peers in Norway, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and New Zealand are among those to have already raised interest rates.

MANY central banks are starting to withdraw the emergency stimulus they introduced to fend off last year’s pandemic recession.

With inflation accelerating, the Federal Reserve is set to slow its asset-purchase program, while peers in Norway, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and New Zealand are among those to have already raised interest rates.

Behind the shift are signs that the recent inflation scare won’t fade soon amid supply chain strains, surging commodity prices, post-lockdown demand, ongoing stimulus and labor shortages.

Complicating the task for policy makers is that growth may be slowing, prompting some to warn of a stagflationary-lite environment.

That puts central bankers in a a bind as they debate which risk they should prioritize. Targeting inflation with tighter monetary policy adds to the pressure on economies, but trying to boost demand may ignite prices further.

For now, the feeling of many is that inflation has lingered longer than most predicted. As Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s new chief economist, said last week, the "balance of risks is currently shifting towards great concerns about the inflation outlook, as the current strength of inflation looks set to prove more long-lasting than originally anticipated.”

Not all are as concerned or looking to change tack. Officials at the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are among those intending to keep stimulating their economies aggressively. And the International Monetary Fund predicts that in advanced economies at least, inflation will soon ease to about 2%.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

"Stagflation is too strong a word. Still, supply shocks that lift prices and lower output leave monetary policy makers with no easy options. With little urgency to act, the Fed and other major central banks are preserving optionality. If stubborn inflation forces their hand, the global recovery will face an additional drag.”

--Tom Orlik, chief economist

Here is Bloomberg’s quarterly guide to 23 of the world’s top central banks, covering 90% of the world economy:

GROUP OF SEVEN

U.S. Federal Reserve

Current federal funds rate (upper bound): 0.25%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 0.25%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2022: 0.25%Jerome Powell, who’s waiting to hear if he’ll be renominated for another four years at the helm of the Fed, has recently taken a step toward scaling back massive pandemic support.

The Fed chair last month said the U.S. central bank could start to taper monthly bond purchases as soon as November. Getting that started is top of his to-do list, alongside persuading Americans that the Fed is also keeping an eye on higher-than-expected inflation.

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